Sylvan Herskowitz

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How Do Firms Respond to Insecurity?
Evidence from Afghan Corporate Phone Records
​with Josh Blumenstock, Tarek Ghani, Ethan Kapstein, Thomas Scherer, and Ott Toomet
Most Recent Version:
(June 2020)
firmsinsecurity.pdf
File Size: 4662 kb
File Type: pdf
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Abstract:

We provide new evidence on how insecurity affects firm behavior by linking data on violent conflict in Afghanistan to geo-stamped corporate mobile phone records. We develop a method for observing firm location choice and validate it with independent sources of administrative and survey data. Terrorist attacks reduce firm presence by 4-6% in affected districts with large negative spillovers from attacks in provincial capitals on surrounding rural districts. After violence, employees in provincial capitals are 33% more likely to move to Kabul and 15% more likely to exit the province. Effects are strongest when employees are outside their firm's primary district.
s.herskowitz [at] cgiar [dot] org                                                                                                                                                      Copyright © 2016